The Importance of Modeling Human Behavior on Health Decisions

Written by: Molly M. Eggleston, MPH, CPH, MCHES, MIDAS Project Coordinator, Public Health Dynamics Laboratory
Copy editors: Linda S. Duchak, EdM, MCHES, Associate Director, and Kurt Holliday, Communications Specialist, Pennsylvania Public Health Training Center

People are neither perfectly informed nor perfectly rational. In epidemics, individuals do not always make logical health decisions to protect themselves and others. Realistic modeling of human behavior in the context of infectious disease allows public health practitioners to prepare for likely reactions to and spread of contagion.

Human behavior can affect the course of an epidemic through several mechanisms. Vaccine acceptance, work absenteeism, adoption of protective measures, isolation, and compliance with containment strategies and hygiene advice are among a wide range of personal health choices that influence epidemic dynamics.

Modeling simplifies real systems, such as waves of an epidemic, into a representation using a computer program. A model allows researchers and practitioners to test interventions that often cannot be tried on a real population.¹ Developing realistic models of individual behavior can help forecast epidemic processes and better inform preparedness policy options. For example, a simulation of behavior of a population with emotions, attitudes, and behaviors can help inform risk communication campaigns during emerging epidemics. An understanding of individual’s compliance with government directives can assess the effect of various interventions.

Computational models of infectious disease hold great potential for studying the interactions between epidemic dynamics and efforts to reduce the impact. These efforts, known as mitigation strategies can include vaccination, anti-viral drugs, social distancing, and school closure policies.

Modeling people’s health behavior is a tool with value for many public health professionals. It can determine which course of action is likely to produce the desired health behavior in a population. Modeling human behavior is a strategic tool for planning for infectious diseases, as well as other health risks.

Citation: 1. Agent-Based and Individual-Based Modeling: A practical introduction, Steven F Railsback and Volker Grimm, Princeton University Press, 2012